Abstract: A computerized method includes analyzing data associated with a credit line during an origination stage for predictive variables for use in a model for first party fraud, and flagging an account during the origination stage when at least one or more predictive origination stage variables cause a model score to exceed a pre-defined fraud likelihood threshold. The computerized method also includes analyzing data associated with one or more previously flagged, post-booked stage credit lines for data elements or transactions to be used as variables in a model to predictive of first party fraud at the customer-level or in one or more of the post-booked stage credit lines.