Abstract: A concierge system identifies retail locations within a distance of a picker client device of a picker. This distance defines a zone and the system provides a map of the zone for display within a picker client application. For each retail location in the zone, the system determines a batch volume for the retail location and an average batch volume for the zone and generates a batch availability score using a model trained on batch volumes for the retail location and batch volume for the zone. The batch availability score can be a value reflecting batch availability or busyness of the retail location relative to other retail locations or can be a wait time prediction in minutes until the picker receives a batch at the retail location. The system modifies how the retail locations are displayed on the map to emphasize those with batch availability scores above a threshold value.

Abstract: An online concierge system identifies a set of attributes of one or more future time periods and accesses a machine learning model trained to predict a set of working hours for a picker during a future time period, in which the set of working hours describes an availability of the picker to service orders placed with the online concierge system. The online concierge system then applies the machine learning model to the set of attributes to predict the set of working hours for the picker during the future time periods and stores the predicted set of working hours for the picker during the future time periods.

Abstract: An online concierge system allows customers to place orders to be fulfilled by pickers. An order includes an amount of compensation a customer provides to a picker when the order is fulfilled. A customer may modify the amount of compensation provided to a picker, so some customers may initially specify a large amount of compensation to entice a picker to fulfill an order and then reduce the amount of compensation when the order is fulfilled. To prevent penalizing pickers who fulfilled an order without a problem, the online concierge system trains a model to determine a probability that a reduction in compensation to a picker was unrelated to a problem with order fulfillment. The online concierge system may perform one or more remedial actions for a picker based on the probability determined by the model.

Abstract: An online concierge system uses a machine-learned parking quality model to quantify the suitability of a particular parking location (e.g., a parking lot, or a street) for use when performing purchases at a retail location on behalf of customers. The parking quality model's output is determined according to input features related to parking at a candidate parking location, such as a current time, a current degree of demand for shoppers at the retail location, or a current average shopper wait time at the retail location before receiving an order. The online concierge system provides suggested alternate parking locations to a client device of the shopper, where they may be displayed, e.g., as part of an electronic map. Use of the suggested alternate parking locations helps to preserve parking availability in restricted areas such as retailer parking lots and to reduce traffic congestion in the area of the retailer.

Abstract: An online concierge system schedules pickers (shoppers) to fulfill orders from users. During periods of peak demand, the system increases compensation to shoppers to encourage more to participate, thereby reducing missed orders. The system determines an optimal multiplier to increase compensation based on predictive models of supply and demand and then applying an optimization algorithm to search different hyperparameters that affect how the models generate the multipliers. The system selects the optimal multipliers for different time periods and locations. The system may further present the multipliers being offered during future time periods and enable users to activate reminder alerts for select periods. The offers may be presented in a ranked list using a model trained to infer likelihoods of the user accepting participation and/or setting a reminder notification.

Abstract: Techniques for predicting a wait time for a shopper based on a location the shopper's client device are presented. A system identifies a shopper's current location and uses a machine learning model to predict a wait time until the shopper will receive one or more orders. The machine learning model is trained to use input features including a number of orders received during a current time period for fulfillment near the current location, a number of other shoppers available for fulfilling orders during the current time period near the current location, historical information about a presentation of a plurality of orders to a plurality of shoppers near the current location, and historical information about the shopper and the other nearby available shoppers. The system then sends the predicted wait time to the client device for presentation to the shopper.

Abstract: An online concierge system receives location information associated with pickers and actual orders associated with a geographical zone. A model trained to predict a likelihood an actual order associated with the zone will be available for servicing within a timeframe is accessed and applied to forecasted orders. Each picker is matched to an order for servicing by minimizing a value of a function that is based on a difference between a location associated with each picker matched to an actual order and an associated retailer location, a difference between the location associated with each picker matched to a forecasted order and an associated retailer location, and the predicted likelihood. Recommendations for accepting an actual order, moving to a retailer location associated with a forecasted order, or checking back later with the system are generated based on the matches and sent for display to a client device associated with each picker.