Abstract: The techniques described herein relate to methods, apparatus, and computer readable media for real-time induced seismicity management. A distribution value, such as a b value, and an uncertainty of the distribution value is calculated based on the received magnitude data, wherein the distribution represents the proportion of each magnitude earthquake observed in the distribution. A seismogenic index is calculated based on a set of fluid injection rates and the distribution value, wherein the seismogenic index represents the proportion of earthquakes per volume of fluid injected into the earth at a particular location. A distribution of a number of earthquakes that will be induced of each magnitude from future injection is forecasted based on the seismogenic index. A ground motion prediction model is calculated, representing shaking intensity and distance based on the forecasted distribution of earthquakes. Seismicity can then be managed to not exceed a tolerated chance of induced shaking consequences.

Abstract: The techniques described herein relate to methods, apparatus, and computer readable media for real-time induced seismicity management. A distribution value, such as a b value, and an uncertainty of the distribution value is calculated based on the received magnitude data, wherein the distribution represents the proportion of each magnitude earthquake observed in the distribution. A seismogenic index is calculated based on a set of fluid injection rates and the distribution value, wherein the seismogenic index represents the proportion of earthquakes per volume of fluid injected into the earth at a particular location. A distribution of a number of earthquakes that will be induced of each magnitude from future injection is forecasted based on the seismogenic index. A ground motion prediction model is calculated, representing shaking intensity and distance based on the forecasted distribution of earthquakes. Seismicity can then be managed to not exceed a tolerated chance of induced shaking consequences.