Abstract: A conversion timing model is model is configured to predict a likelihood of conversion based on an entity's elapsed time since a qualified entry event and based on a funnel state. The conversion timing model is constructed based on a distribution of the conversion timespans of converters. A notification of an opportunity to expose a candidate entity to networked content is received. A time-based likelihood of conversion for the candidate entity is determined by applying the conversion timing model to the elapsed time. A response to the notification based on the likelihood of conversion for the candidate entity is prepared based on the time-based likelihood of conversion and based on the funnel state. Timely responses may include the selection of customized content or bid values.