Abstract: In one example of the technology, device information associated with a device upgrade and a plurality of devices includes risk parameters including values associated with a minimum health value that is associated with a minimum acceptable number of healthy devices among the plurality of devices and a confidence value associated with a minimum acceptable probability that the number of healthy devices among the plurality of devices is at least as great as the minimum health value; and, for each device a success probability value that is associated with a probability that the device will be healthy after the device upgrade is performed on the device. A Poisson binomial distribution is iteratively used to determine a set of devices among the plurality of device for which the largest possible number of devices are included in the set of devices while meeting the risk parameters. The set of devices is then upgraded.

Abstract: In one example of the technology, device information associated with a device upgrade and a plurality of devices includes risk parameters including values associated with a minimum health value that is associated with a minimum acceptable number of healthy devices among the plurality of devices and a confidence value associated with a minimum acceptable probability that the number of healthy devices among the plurality of devices is at least as great as the minimum health value; and, for each device a success probability value that is associated with a probability that the device will be healthy after the device upgrade is performed on the device. A Poisson binomial distribution is iteratively used to determine a set of devices among the plurality of device for which the largest possible number of devices are included in the set of devices while meeting the risk parameters. The set of devices is then upgraded.

Abstract: In one example of the technology, device information associated with a device upgrade and a plurality of devices includes risk parameters including values associated with a minimum health value that is associated with a minimum acceptable number of healthy devices among the plurality of devices and a confidence value associated with a minimum acceptable probability that the number of healthy devices among the plurality of devices is at least as great as the minimum health value; and, for each device a success probability value that is associated with a probability that the device will be healthy after the device upgrade is performed on the device. A Poisson binomial distribution is iteratively used to determine a set of devices among the plurality of device for which the largest possible number of devices are included in the set of devices while meeting the risk parameters. The set of devices is then upgraded.

Abstract: In one example of the technology, device information associated with a device upgrade and a plurality of devices includes risk parameters including values associated with a minimum health value that is associated with a minimum acceptable number of healthy devices among the plurality of devices and a confidence value associated with a minimum acceptable probability that the number of healthy devices among the plurality of devices is at least as great as the minimum health value; and, for each device a success probability value that is associated with a probability that the device will be healthy after the device upgrade is performed on the device. A Poisson binomial distribution is iteratively used to determine a set of devices among the plurality of device for which the largest possible number of devices are included in the set of devices while meeting the risk parameters. The set of devices is then upgraded.