Abstract: A method predicting impact between a vehicle and a detected moving pedestrian, generating N particles representing trajectory pairs of the vehicle and the pedestrian according to a Monte Carlo method, and then evaluating the outcome of each particle so that the space of states of each particle is split into areas of varying significance depending on its present kinematic state and so that in the case of a predicted non-impact, the relationship between the significance of the particle at the present instant and its significance at the preceding instant is calculated to decide, in a case of a particle whose significance increases, to reduce it to an integer greater than 1, of particles each affected by a new weight and, in a case of a particle whose significance decreases, randomly eliminating it according to the significance relationship, its probability to endure being equal to the relationship of significance, the estimation of the probability of the predicted impact being obtained by statistics on the outco