Abstract: A first plurality of predictor values occurring during or before a first time interval may be received. An estimated outcome value may be determined for a second time interval by applying a prediction model via a processor to the first plurality of predictor values. A designated outcome value occurring during the second time interval and a second plurality of predictor values occurring during or before the second time interval may be received. An error value may be determined based on the estimated outcome value and the designated outcome value. A drift value for a second time interval may be determined by fitting a function to the second plurality of predictor values. The prediction model may be updated when it is determined that the drift value exceeds a designated drift threshold or that the error value exceeds a designated error threshold.

Abstract: In many industrial settings, a process is repeated many times, for instance to transform physical inputs into physical outputs. To detect a situation involving such a process in which errors are likely to occur, information about the process may be collected to determine time-varying feature vectors. Then, a drift value may be determined by comparing feature vectors corresponding with different time periods. When the drift value crosses a designated drift threshold, a predicted outcome value may be determined by applying a prediction model. Sensitivity values may be determined for different features, and elements of the process may then be updated based at least in part on the sensitivity values.