Abstract: Described are a method and a system for generating a short-term forecast of echo tops as defined by weather radar measurements. The method includes receiving echo tops images for different times. An echo tops growth rate and an echo tops maximum value are determined for pixels in one of the images and used to generate echo tops prediction values for an echo tops prediction image. For pixels in regions of the image determined to be subject to convective initiation but where convective weather does not exist, an echo tops initiation height and the echo tops maximum value are determined and used with a predicted precipitation value to generate an echo tops prediction value for each pixel.