Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for predicting a probability of a problem in a service at a service provider based on implementation of a change to the service. One exemplary method includes a risk engine accessing change records for historical changes in services associated with the service provider where each record includes a text description of the implemented change and a problem/no problem result for the change. For each record, the risk engine normalizes the text description of the implemented change and generates a word-count matrix based on the normalized text description. The risk engine then performs a regression analysis of the generated word-count matrices for the records and the corresponding problem/no problem results, thereby providing a regression model, and generates a predictive algorithm based on a score provided from the regression model and at least one change factor associated with the change records.