Abstract: An apparatus and method is provided for evaluating default and foreclosure loss risk, both at time zero and for several years into the future, associated with a piece of real property on the basis of factors such as statistical home price trend information for a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in which the real property is located and loan terms. An automated valuation estimate for the property is obtained and compared to the purchase price. A loan-to-value ratio is determined based on automated valuation estimate. A future home price is predicted based on statistical data obtained for a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in which the real property is located. Based on the future home price and the LTV ratio, a probability that the real property will have negative equity is determined, and a risk score is generated based on the probability.