Abstract: A graphical interface module may provide a set of graphical presentations comprising at least: a Likelihood of Delivery chart showing a probability distribution of predicted delivery dates; a Delivery Date Risk Trend chart showing how the completion time for the project predicted according to the Likelihood of Delivery chart has changed over time; and a Burndown chart that shows at least work-items of planned work for the project. Each of the Likelihood of Delivery chart, the Delivery Date Risk Trend chart, and the Burndown chart has a timeline axis.

Abstract: A system and method are provided for direct manipulation of a triangular distribution of information. The system includes a graphical user interface for receiving user inputted values. The system further includes a data calculator for generating estimates based on the user inputted values, and for generating curves for display on a grid based on at least one of, the user inputted values and the estimates. The graphical user interface respectively receives the user inputted values based at least on a current position of a pointer on the grid. The graphical user interface is capable of applying a direct manipulation to at least one of the user inputted values and the estimates, such that a result of the direct manipulation is displayed on the grid and enters triplets corresponding to an expected value, an upper bound for the expected value, and a lower bound for the expected value.

Abstract: Historic and current development data associated with the project may be gathered. A catalog of patterns, each pattern associated with a data measure and an analysis routine capable of detecting the pattern according to the data measure in a given data set may be obtained. A pattern describes a particular indication in the historical and development data, which arises one or more of, at a discrete point in time or over a period of time. The analysis routine may be applied to the historic and current development data. A notification may be issued responsive to identifying the pattern in the historic and current development data. The applying and the issuing may be performed for each pattern in the catalog of patterns.

Abstract: Incorporating user insights in predicting, diagnosing and remediating problems that threaten on-time delivery of a project may comprise gathering information. The information may be conveyed to one or more users. A user may be allowed to input a new value associated with the project, the new value assessed based on the information and representing an expert assessment of the information. The user may be allowed to also indicate a period of time the user considers the information to be applicable. The new value and the period of time may be incorporated into data used in a prediction algorithm that predicts probability distribution of completion time of the project as the project is progressing.

Abstract: A user may be allowed to specify a change in one or more parameter data associated with the project, the one or more parameter data used previously to compute a probability distribution of completion time of the project. The probability distribution of completion time of the project may be recomputed based on the change. The recomputed probability distribution of the completion time of the project may be presented. An option to save the recomputed probability distribution may be provided. An option may be provided to specify another change in one or more parameter data associated with the project and repeat the recomputing and the presenting procedures based on another change in one or more parameter data associated with the project.

Abstract: A graphical interface module may provide a set of graphical presentations comprising at least: a Likelihood of Delivery chart showing a probability distribution of predicted delivery dates; a Delivery Date Risk Trend chart showing how the completion time for the project predicted according to the Likelihood of Delivery chart has changed over time; and a Burndown chart that shows at least work-items of planned work for the project. Each of the Likelihood of Delivery chart, the Delivery Date Risk Trend chart, and the Burndown chart has a timeline axis.

Abstract: A graphical interface module may provide a set of graphical presentations comprising at least: a Likelihood of Delivery chart showing a probability distribution of predicted delivery dates; a Delivery Date Risk Trend chart showing how the completion time for the project predicted according to the Likelihood of Delivery chart has changed over time; and a Burndown chart that shows at least work-items of planned work for the project. Each of the Likelihood of Delivery chart, the Delivery Date Risk Trend chart, and the Burndown chart has a timeline axis.

Abstract: A task effort estimator may determine a probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete unfinished tasks in a project based on one or more of a set of completed tasks belonging to a project and attributes associated with the completed tasks belonging to the project, a set of completed tasks not belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks not belonging to the project, or the combination of both. A project completion predictor may determine a probability distribution of completion time for the project based on the probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete the unfinished tasks in the project, and one or more resource and scheduling constraints associated with the project.

Abstract: A method for projecting the progress of a project, the project including work items, the method including: obtaining starting state transition probabilities for the work items in a first time interval; obtaining starting populations of the work items, wherein the starting populations of the work items include states of the work items at the beginning of the first time interval; determining expected distributions for the work item states at the end of the first time interval by using the starting state transition probabilities and the starting populations; identifying actual states for the work items at the end of the first time interval; determining actual state transition rates of the work items for the first time interval by using the starting populations and the actual states; and determining expected future state transition probabilities for the work items by using the starting state transition probabilities and the actual state transition rates.

Abstract: A system and method are provided for direct manipulation of a triangular distribution of information. The system includes a graphical user interface for receiving user inputted values. The system further includes a data calculator for generating estimates based on the user inputted values, and for generating curves for display on a grid based on at least one of, the user inputted values and the estimates. The graphical user interface respectively receives the user inputted values based at least on a current position of a pointer on the grid. The graphical user interface is capable of applying a direct manipulation to at least one of the user inputted values and the estimates, such that a result of the direct manipulation is displayed on the grid and enters triplets corresponding to an expected value, an upper bound for the expected value, and a lower bound for the expected value.

Abstract: System, method and graphical user interface for a simulation base calculator provides one or more selectable distribution models. One or more input fields are provided for inputting rules with one or more random variables. A processing module inputs one or more of the selectable distribution models and the rules into a simulator running on the system. An output field is provided for displaying one or more aspects of a result determined by the model run on the simulator.

Abstract: Incorporating user insights in predicting, diagnosing and remediating problems that threaten on-time delivery of a project may comprise gathering information. The information may be conveyed to one or more users. A user may be allowed to input a new value associated with the project, the new value assessed based on the information and representing an expert assessment of the information. The user may be allowed to also indicate a period of time the user considers the information to be applicable. The new value and the period of time may be incorporated into data used in a prediction algorithm that predicts probability distribution of completion time of the project as the project is progressing.

Abstract: A graphical interface module may provide a set of graphical presentations comprising at least: a Likelihood of Delivery chart showing a probability distribution of predicted delivery dates; a Delivery Date Risk Trend chart showing how the completion time for the project predicted according to the Likelihood of Delivery chart has changed over time; and a Burndown chart that shows at least work-items of planned work for the project. Each of the Likelihood of Delivery chart, the Delivery Date Risk Trend chart, and the Burndown chart has a timeline axis.

Abstract: Historic and current development data associated with the project may be gathered. A catalog of patterns, each pattern associated with a data measure and an analysis routine capable of detecting the pattern according to the data measure in a given data set may be obtained. A pattern describes a particular indication in the historical and development data, which arises one or more of, at a discrete point in time or over a period of time. The analysis routine may be applied to the historic and current development data. A notification may be issued responsive to identifying the pattern in the historic and current development data. The applying and the issuing may be performed for each pattern in the catalog of patterns.

Abstract: A user may be allowed to specify a change in one or more parameter data associated with the project, the one or more parameter data used previously to compute a probability distribution of completion time of the project. The probability distribution of completion time of the project may be recomputed based on the change. The recomputed probability distribution of the completion time of the project may be presented. An option to save the recomputed probability distribution may be provided. An option may be provided to specify another change in one or more parameter data associated with the project and repeat the recomputing and the presenting procedures based on another change in one or more parameter data associated with the project.

Abstract: Method and system for determining estimation variance associated with project planning are provided. In one aspect, information associated with a project is obtained and initial estimations for the tasks in the project are determined using available information. The tasks are performed and actual measurements are obtained from the completed tasks. The actual measurements are used to revise the estimates of the remaining tasks. The revised estimates are used to compute a project level estimate and a variance on that estimate, and to enable better project management.

Abstract: A task effort estimator may determine a probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete unfinished tasks in a project based on one or more of a set of completed tasks belonging to a project and attributes associated with the completed tasks belonging to the project, a set of completed tasks not belonging to the project and attributes associated with the completed tasks not belonging to the project, or the combination of both. A project completion predictor may determine a probability distribution of completion time for the project based on the probability distribution of an estimated effort needed to complete the unfinished tasks in the project, and one or more resource and scheduling constraints associated with the project.

Abstract: Supporting problem resolution of an organization, in one aspect, may include obtaining operational data associated with the organization, calculating operating metrics based on the operational data, detecting one or more metrics trends based on the calculated operational metrics, identifying one or more relations between the metric trends, and determining one or more SEM patterns from two or more of the calculated operational metrics and metric trends.

Abstract: Method and system for determining estimation variance associated with project planning are provided. In one aspect, information associated with a project is obtained and initial estimations for the tasks in the project are determined using available information. The tasks are performed and actual measurements are obtained from the completed tasks. The actual measurements are used to revise the estimates of the remaining tasks. The revised estimates are used to compute a project level estimate and a variance on that estimate, and to enable better project management.

Abstract: Supporting problem resolution of an organization, in one aspect, may include obtaining operational data associated with the organization, calculating operating metrics based on the operational data, detecting one or more metrics trends based on the calculated operational metrics, identifying one or more relations between the metric trends, and determining one or more SEM patterns from two or more of the calculated operational metrics and metric trends.