Abstract: One variation of a method for modeling mobile advertisement consumption includes: serving a first advertisement in an advertising campaign to a computing device associated with a user, accessing a first set of engagement data, recorded by the first advertisement, representing a first set of interactions between the user and the first advertisement at the computing device; accessing a model linking user interactions with a set of advertisements within the advertising campaign and a target outcome for the advertising campaign; estimating a predicted set of interactions between the user and a second advertisement in the advertising campaign based on the model and the first set of engagement data; and in response to the predicted set of interactions anticipating the target outcome, serving the second advertisement, in the advertising campaign, to the user.