Abstract: Disclosed are methods and apparatus for updating at least one prediction model for use by at least one interactive server. Each interactive server performs a plurality of actions in the context of a plurality of input attributes values of an input dataset wherein the actions are selected based on each prediction model. contextual data are automatically and continually obtained from the interactive server as it performs the plurality of actions. A learning model is automatically and continually updated based on all of the obtained contextual data. An updated prediction model and a prediction of a probability of an outcome using the updated prediction model are generated. A prediction is generated and an action of the plurality of actions based on the prediction is selected. The selection action is performed.

Abstract: An expected value associated with an end event is predicted for each of multiple event sequences, with an event sequence to be presented to a user being selected based on the excepted values. In one embodiment, input attributes and contextual data collected during performance of previous event sequences are obtained, and a plurality of expected values is predicted for going from a first event to each of a plurality of subsequent events of a first event sequence. An expected value is also predicted for going from a first event of a second event sequence to an end event of the second event sequence. The expected values for the first and second event sequences are compared to determine which end event a user is more likely to reach, and an event sequence is selected to present to a user based thereon.

Abstract: Disclosed are methods and apparatus for reporting significant data mining changes. In general, embodiments of the present invention address the shortcomings of the prior art through comparison over time of prediction model characteristics, such as inferences. Embodiments of the present invention detect trends in the model itself by detecting changes in levels of correlation (or any other model aspect) between individual elements of input data and targets of predictions. In this specific embodiment, users of the model are preferably alerted when an input characteristic or other model aspect, which was not important before, becomes important and when an input characteristic, which was important, loses its importance.

Abstract: Disclosed are methods and apparatus for evaluating a certainty characteristic of a predictive model. When a decision needs to be implemented, the predictive model is utilized unless the certainty characteristic of such model indicates that the predictive model results are unacceptably uncertain and should not be used. Otherwise, the predictive model is used to reach a decision. In a further embodiment, randomization is introduced into the results of the predictive model (when utilized for a decision). The amount of randomization is tied to the amount of uncertainty of results of the model to thereby balance exploitation and exploration goals.

Abstract: Disclosed are methods and apparatus for predicting an expected value associated with an end event of an event sequence. In one embodiment, the following operations are performed: (a) providing a current set of input attributes and contextual data collected during performance of previous event sequences; (b) predicting a plurality of expected values for going from a first event of a known event sequence to each of a plurality of subsequent events of the known event sequence based at least on the current set of input attributes and the collected contextual data; and (c) predicting an expected value for going from a first event of an unknown event sequence to an end event of such unknown event sequence based on at least two of the expected values predicted for the known event sequence and based at least on the current set of input attributes and the collected contextual data.