Abstract: Knowledge corroboration is described. In an embodiment many judges provide answers to many questions so that at least one answer is provided to each question and at least some of the questions have answers from more than one judge. In an example a probabilistic learning system takes features describing the judges or the questions or both and uses those features to learn an expertise of each judge. For example, the probabilistic learning system has a graphical assessment component which aggregates the answers in a manner which takes into account the learnt expertise in order to determine enhanced answers. In an example the enhanced answers are used for knowledge base clean-up or web-page classification and the learnt expertise is used to select judges for future questions. In an example the probabilistic learning system has a logical component that propagates answers according to logical relations between the questions.

Abstract: Machine learning techniques may be used to train computing devices to understand a variety of documents (e.g., text files, web pages, articles, spreadsheets, etc.). Machine learning techniques may be used to address the issue that computing devices may lack the human intellect used to understand such documents, such as their semantic meaning. Accordingly, a topic model may be trained by sequentially processing documents and/or their features (e.g., document author, geographical location of author, creation date, social network information of author, and/or document metadata). Additionally, as provided herein, the topic model may be used to predict probabilities that words, features, documents, and/or document corpora, for example, are indicative of particular topics.

Abstract: A publishing engine captures capturing commercial events and other information (collectively, “commercial information”) associated with a first user and automatically notifies other users in the social network of the first user of this commercial information. The publishing engine also notifies one or more search engines of these events and information. Based on this commercial information, the search engine can augment search results of the members of the social network to include historical notifications relating to commercial transactions for similar products and/or services by others in their social network. In this manner, for example, the search engine can provide results directing the searcher to other users in their social network who have purchased such products and/or services.

Abstract: A publishing engine captures commercial information associated with a first user and automatically notifies other users in the first user's social network of this commercial information. The first user authorizes an e-commerce system to access his or her social network and to publish commercial information about the first user's commercial activity (e.g., a purchase or other commercial transaction) to users in the social network. By this automated notification, the notified users in the first user's social network can learn that the first user has completed a commercial transaction pertaining to a particular product or service. If a notified user is interested in a similar product or service, he or she can contact the first user to inquire about the first user's experience and information with the product or service.

Abstract: Online recommendations are tracked through a forwarding service. For example, a user may send an email to a friend recommending a product specified at a web site identified by a URI embedded in the email. Before sending the email, the user submits the URI to a forwarding service, which returns a new URI mapped to the original URI and to the recommending user. The recommending user can then recommend the web site by forwarding the new URI to the friend. If the friend selects the recommended URI to review the web site, the forwarding service records the decision to review the web site and directs the friend to the recommended web site. The forwarding service maintains a database of recommendations made by the recommending user, recommendation consumed by the friend, etc. Incentives can be provided to the recommending user and the friend to encourage recommendations.

Abstract: Online recommendations are tracked through a forwarding service. The forwarding service can provide such statistics to an ad service, which can provide incentives to the recommending user and a consuming user. Example incentives may include an accumulation of points by the recommending user, a discount to the consuming user if a purchase is made in response to the recommendation, etc. To determine how much of an incentive each participant in the recommendation flow receives, a graph is created to model the recommendation flow and incentives are allocated using a cooperative game description based on this graph that associates each participant with a power index that represents that participants share of the incentive.

Abstract: Event prediction in dynamic environments is described. In an embodiment a prediction engine may use the learnt information to predict events in order to control a system such as for internet advertising, email filtering, fraud detection or other applications. In an example one or more variables exists for pre-specified features describing or associated with events and each variable is considered to have an associated weight and time stamp. For example, belief about each weight is represented using a probability distribution and a dynamics process is used to modify the probability distribution in a manner dependent on the time stamp for that weight. For example, the uncertainty about the associated variable's influence on prediction of future events is increased. Examples of different schedules for applying the dynamics process are given.

Abstract: Managing a portfolio of experts is described where the experts may be for example, automated experts or human experts. In an embodiment a selection engine selects an expert from a portfolio of experts and assigns the expert to a specified task. For example, the selection engine has a Bayesian machine learning system which is iteratively updated each time an experts performance on a task is observed. For example, sparsely active binary task and expert feature vectors are input to the selection engine which maps those feature vectors to a multi-dimensional trait space using a mapping learnt by the machine learning system. In examples, an inner product of the mapped vectors gives an estimate of a probability distribution over expert performance. In an embodiment the experts are automated problem solvers and the task is a hard combinatorial problem such as a constraint satisfaction problem or combinatorial auction.

Abstract: Machine learning using relational databases is described. In an embodiment a model of a probabilistic relational database is formed by augmenting relation schemas of a relational database with probabilistic attributes. In an example, the model comprises constraints introduced by linking the probabilistic attributes using factor statements. For example, a compiler translates the model into a factor graph data structure which may be passed to an inference engine to carry out machine learning. For example, this enables machine learning to be integrated with the data and it is not necessary to pre-process or reformat large scale data sets for a particular problem domain. In an embodiment a machine learning system for estimating skills of players in an online gaming environment is provided. In another example, a machine learning system for data mining of medical data is provided. In some examples, missing attribute values are filled using machine learning results.

Abstract: A scalable clustering system is described. In an embodiment the clustering system is operable for extremely large scale applications where millions of items having tens of millions of features are clustered. In an embodiment the clustering system uses a probabilistic cluster model which models uncertainty in the data set where the data set may be for example, advertisements which are subscribed to keywords, text documents containing text keywords, images having associated features or other items. In an embodiment the clustering system is used to generate additional features for associating with a given item. For example, additional keywords are suggested which an advertiser may like to subscribe to. The additional features that are generated have associated probability values which may be used to rank those features in some embodiments. User feedback about the generated features is received and used to revise the feature generation process in some examples.

Abstract: A recommender system may be used to predict a user behavior that a user will give in relation to an item. In an embodiment such predictions are used to enable items to be recommended to users. For example, products may be recommended to customers, potential friends may be recommended to users of a social networking tool, organizations may be recommended to automated users or other items may be recommended to users. In an embodiment a memory stores a data structure specifying a bi-linear collaborative filtering model of user behaviors. In the embodiment an automated inference process may be applied to the data structure in order to predict a user behavior given information about a user and information about an item. For example, the user information comprises user features as well as a unique user identifier.

Abstract: A process for determining relative player skills and draw margins is described. Information about an outcome of a game between at least a first player opposing a second player is received. Also, for each player, skill statistics are received associated with a distribution representing belief about skill of that player. Draw margin statistics are received associated with a distribution representing belief about ability of that player to force a draw. An update process is performed to update the statistics on the basis of the received information about the game outcome. In an embodiment a Bayesian inference process is used during the update process which may take past and future player achievement into account.

Abstract: There are many situations in which it is desired to predict outcomes of events. In an example, an event prediction system is described which receives variables for a proposed event. The system accesses learnt statistics describing belief about weights associated with the variables and uses the weights to determine probability information that the proposed event will have a specified outcome. The process involves combining the accessed statistics and mapping them into a number representing the probability. In another example, a machine learning process using assumed density filtering is used to learn the statistics from data about observed events. The event prediction system may be used as part of any suitable type of system such as an internet advertising system, an email filtering system, or a fraud detection system.

Abstract: Matchmaking processes at online game services often result in players having to wait unacceptably long times to receive a match or immediately receiving a poorly matched session. By using a matchmaking process which dynamically adapts a good balance is achieved between the quality of proposed matches (for example, in terms of how balanced, interesting and fun those matches are likely to be) and the waiting time for potential matches. A matchmaking threshold is specified. When a player seeks a match a waiting time is observed, for example, as to how long that player waits until starting a game or dropping out. Information about such waiting times is used to dynamically update the matchmaking threshold. The update is made on the basis of a relationship between information about the observed waiting time and a target waiting time. Further control may be achieved by using separate matchmaking thresholds and target waiting times for different game categories.

Abstract: Players in a gaming environment, particularly, electronic on-line gaming environments, may be scored relative to each other or to a predetermined scoring system. The scoring of each player may be based on the outcomes of games between players who compete against each other in one or more teams of one or more players. Each player's score may be represented as a distribution over potential scores which may indicate a confidence level in the distribution representing the player's score. The score distribution for each player may be modeled with a Gaussian distribution and may be determined through a Bayesian inference algorithm. The scoring may be used to track a player's progress and/or standing within the gaming environment, used in a leaderboard indication of rank, and/or may be used to match players with each other in a future game.

Abstract: Reputation systems have been used to promote trust between participants in activities including online activities such as online market places. Existing online market places provide a reputation system which is a simple cumulative registry of user ratings on a given market place member. However, this simple system is open to abuse in situations where, for example, many positive ratings are given in a fraudulent manner. By modeling both reputation of participants and required reputation of participants an improved reputation system is provided. The required reputation may be thought of as a threshold, referred to herein as a required threshold, which may be used in determining how to update an indication of the reputation of a participant in the activity. The reputation system is able to learn information about required reputation and reputation of participants using an update process which is robust to participants who consistently give feedback of a particular type.

Abstract: A skill scoring frameworks allows for handicapping an individual game player in a gaming environment in preparation of matching the game player with other game players, whether for building teams or assigning competitors, or both. By introducing handicapping into the skill scoring framework, a highly skilled player may select one or more game characteristics (e.g., a less than optimal racing vehicle, reduced character capabilities, etc.) and therefore be assigned a handicap that allows the player to be matched with lower skilled players for competitive game play. Handicaps may apply positively or negatively a player's skill score during the matching stage. Handicaps may also be updated based on the game outcomes of the game play in which they were applied.

Abstract: A real-time stereo video signal of a captured scene with a physical foreground object and a physical background is received. In real-time, a foreground/background separation algorithm is used on the real-time stereo video signal to identify pixels from the stereo video signal that represent the physical foreground object. A video sequence is produced by rendering a 3d virtual reality based on the identified pixels of the physical foreground object.

Abstract: Skill scores represent a ranking or other indication of the skill of the player based on the outcome of the game in a gaming environment. Skills scores can be used in matching compatible players on the same team and matching opposing players or teams to obtain an evenly-matched competition. An initial skill score of a player in a new gaming environment may be based in whole or in part on the skill score of that player in another game environment. The influence that the skill scores for these other game environments may have in the skill score seeding for the new game environment may be weighted based on a defined compatibility factor with the new game environment. The compatibility factor can be determined based on a game-to-game basis, compatible categories or features, game developer defined parameters, or any combination of considerations.

Abstract: An adaptive pattern classifier makes use of training patterns and a known non-linear invariance transformation to generate a classifier representation based on an infinite set of virtual training samples on a training trajectory. Given the non-linear invariance transformation, optimization can be formulated as a semidefinite program (SDP), which is given by a linear objective function that is minimized subject to a linear matrix inequality (LMI). In this manner, a small training set may be virtually supplemented using the non-linear invariance transformation to learn an effective classifier that satisfactorily recognizes patterns, even in the presence of known transformations that do not change the class of the pattern.