Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: A system is provided comprising a risk engine coupled to a financial system that includes an account. The risk engine generates an account model corresponding to a user and events of the account. Generation of the account model uses event parameters of a previous event performed by the user in the account. The risk engine uses the account model to generate a first probability of observing event parameters assuming the user is conducting the next event. The risk engine uses a fraud model to generate a second probability of observing event parameters assuming a fraudster is conducting the next event. The risk engine generates a risk score, using the first and second probabilities, which indicates the relative likelihood the next event is performed by the user. The system includes a risk application comprising an analytical user interface that displays for any event the risk score and/or event parameters.

Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for predicting expected behavior of a user in an account. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user. The systems and methods estimate a plurality of components of the causal model using event parameters of a first set of events undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a second set of events using the causal model.

Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: Systems and methods are provided for predicting expected behavior of a user in an account. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user. The systems and methods estimate a plurality of components of the causal model using event parameters of a first set of events undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a second set of events using the causal model.

Abstract: Systems and methods generate a risk score for an account event. The systems and methods automatically generate a causal model corresponding to a user, wherein the model estimates components of the causal model using event parameters of a previous event undertaken by the user in an account of the user. The systems and methods predict expected behavior of the user during a next event in the account using the causal model. Predicting the expected behavior of the user includes generating expected event parameters of the next event. The systems and methods use a predictive fraud model to generate fraud event parameters. Generation of the fraud event parameters assumes a fraudster is conducting the next event, wherein the fraudster is any person other than the user. The systems and methods generate a risk score of the next event to indicate the relative likelihood the future event is performed by the user.

Abstract: A system is provided comprising a risk engine coupled to a financial system that includes an account. The risk engine generates an account model corresponding to a user and events of the account. Generation of the account model uses event parameters of a previous event performed by the user in the account. The risk engine uses the account model to generate a first probability of observing event parameters assuming the user is conducting the next event. The risk engine uses a fraud model to generate a second probability of observing event parameters assuming a fraudster is conducting the next event. The risk engine generates a risk score, using the first and second probabilities, which indicates the relative likelihood the next event is performed by the user. The system includes a risk application comprising an analytical user interface that displays for any event the risk score and/or event parameters.