Abstract: A damage probability calculation device which calculates a damage probability in an evaluation target region of a gas turbine computes strength distributions including a mean, a standard deviation and a certainty factor of the strength of a material used for the evaluation target region with respect to stresses on the basis of strength test data of the material. In addition, the damage probability calculation device computes stress distributions including the mean, the standard deviation and the certainty factor of stresses input to the evaluation target region on the basis of operation data of the gas turbine acquired through a sensor. Further, the damage probability calculation device computes damage probability distributions indicating distributions of damage probabilities of the evaluation target region on the basis of the strength distributions and the stress distributions.

Abstract: A damage probability calculation device which calculates a damage probability in an evaluation target region of a gas turbine computes strength distributions including a mean, a standard deviation and a certainty factor of the strength of a material used for the evaluation target region with respect to stresses on the basis of strength test data of the material. In addition, the damage probability calculation device computes stress distributions including the mean, the standard deviation and the certainty factor of stresses input to the evaluation target region on the basis of operation data of the gas turbine acquired through a sensor. Further, the damage probability calculation device computes damage probability distributions indicating distributions of damage probabilities of the evaluation target region on the basis of the strength distributions and the stress distributions.