Abstract: Methods and systems for training a neural network (NN)-based climate forecasting model on a pre-processed multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data from a plurality of global climate simulation models (GCMs), are disclosed. The methods and systems perform steps of determining a common spatial scale and a common temporal scale for the multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data; spatially re-gridding the multi-model ensemble to the common spatial scale; temporally homogenizing the multi-model ensemble to the common temporal scale; augmenting the spatially re-gridded, temporally homogenized multi-model ensemble with synthetic simulation data generated from the spatially re-gridded, temporally homogenized multi-model ensemble; and training the NN-based climate forecasting model using the spatially re-gridded, temporally homogenized, and augmented multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data.

Abstract: Methods and systems for generating a neural network (NN)-based climate forecasting model are disclosed. The methods and systems perform steps of selecting a global climate simulation dataset from a plurality of simulation datasets each generated from a global climate simulation model; training the NN-based climate forecasting model on the selected global climate simulation dataset; and validating the NN-based climate forecasting model using observational historical climate data. Embodiments of the present invention enable accurate climate forecasting without the need to run new dynamical global climate simulations on supercomputers. Also disclosed are benefits of the new methods, and alternative embodiments of implementation.

Abstract: Embodiments of the present invention provide the use of a conditional Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to simultaneously correct and downscale (super-resolve) global ensemble weather or climate forecasts. Specifically, a generator deep neural network (G-DNN) in the cGAN comprises a corrector DNN (C-DNN) followed by a super-resolver DNN (SR-DNN). The C-DNN bias-corrects coarse, global meteorological forecasts, taking into account other relevant contextual meteorological fields. The SR-DNN downscales bias-corrected C-DNN output into G-DNN output at a higher target spatial resolution. The GAN is trained in three stages: C-DNN training, SR-DNN training, and overall GAN training, each using separate loss functions. Embodiments of the present invention significantly outperform an interpolation baseline, and approach the performance of operational regional high-resolution forecast models across an array of established probabilistic metrics.

Abstract: Embodiments of the present invention provide the use of a conditional Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to simultaneously correct and downscale (super-resolve) global ensemble weather or climate forecasts. Specifically, a generator deep neural network (G-DNN) in the cGAN comprises a corrector DNN (C-DNN) followed by a super-resolver DNN (SR-DNN). The C-DNN bias-corrects coarse, global meteorological forecasts, taking into account other relevant contextual meteorological fields. The SR-DNN downscales bias-corrected C-DNN output into G-DNN output at a higher target spatial resolution. The GAN is trained in three stages: C-DNN training, SR-DNN training, and overall GAN training, each using separate loss functions. Embodiments of the present invention significantly outperform an interpolation baseline, and approach the performance of operational regional high-resolution forecast models across an array of established probabilistic metrics.

Abstract: Methods and systems for generating a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data from a plurality of pre-existing global climate simulation model (GCM) datasets, are disclosed. The methods and systems perform steps of computing a GCM dataset validation measure based on at least one sample statistic for at least one climate variable from the pre-existing GCM dataset; selecting a validated subset of the plurality of pre-existing GCM datasets; selecting a subset of GCM datasets; generating one or more candidate ensembles of GCM datasets; computing an ensemble forecast skill score for each candidate ensemble of GCM datasets; generating the multi-model ensemble of GCM datasets by selecting a candidate ensemble of GCM datasets with a best ensemble forecast skill score; and training the NN-based climate forecasting model using the multi-model ensemble of GCM datasets.

Abstract: Methods and systems for training a neural network (NN)-based climate forecasting model on a pre-processed multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data from a plurality of global climate simulation models (GCMs), are disclosed. The methods and systems perform steps of determining a common spatial scale and a common temporal scale for the multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data; spatially re-gridding the multi-model ensemble to the common spatial scale; temporally homogenizing the multi-model ensemble to the common temporal scale; augmenting the spatially re-gridded, temporally homogenized multi-model ensemble with synthetic simulation data generated from the spatially re-gridded, temporally homogenized multi-model ensemble; and training the NN-based climate forecasting model using the spatially re-gridded, temporally homogenized, and augmented multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data.

Abstract: Methods and systems for generating a neural network (NN)-based climate forecasting model are disclosed. The methods and systems perform steps of generating a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data by combining simulation data from at least two global climate simulation models; pre-processing the multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data; training the NN-based climate forecasting model on the pre-processed multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data; and validating the NN-based climate forecasting model using observational historical climate data. Embodiments of the present invention enable accurate climate forecasting without the need to run new dynamical global climate simulations on supercomputers. Also disclosed are benefits of the new methods, and alternative embodiments of implementation.

Abstract: Methods and systems for generating a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data from a plurality of global climate simulation models (GCMs), to be used in training a neural network (NN)-based climate forecasting model, are disclosed. The methods and systems perform steps of computing a GCM validation measure for each GCM; selecting a validated subset of the GCMs, by comparing each computed GCM validation measure to a validation threshold determined based on observational historical climate data; computing a forecast skill score for each validated GCM, based on a first forecast function; selecting a validated and skillful subset of GCMs; generating one or more candidate ensembles by combining simulation data from at least two validated and skillful GCMs; computing an ensemble forecast skill score for each candidate ensemble, based on a second forecast function; and selecting a best-scored candidate ensemble.

Abstract: Methods and systems for generating a neural network (NN)-based climate forecasting model are disclosed. The methods and systems perform steps of generating a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data by combining simulation data from at least two global climate simulation models; pre-processing the multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data, where the pre-processing comprises at least one action of spatial re-gridding, temporal homogenization, and data augmentation; training the NN-based climate forecasting model on the pre-processed multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data; and validating the NN-based climate forecasting model using observational historical climate data. Embodiments of the present invention enable accurate climate forecasting without the need to run new dynamical global climate simulations on supercomputers. Also disclosed are benefits of the new methods, and alternative embodiments of implementation.