Abstract: Systems and methods for future trends forecasting based on prediction market probability estimates. Alternative simulated starting values for prediction markets are used in order to determine the preferred starting values for prediction markets to use in volumetric forecasting. A user interface that facilitates using prediction market probability estimates to determine future trends forecasts is described herein.
Type:
Application
Filed:
September 29, 2023
Publication date:
January 25, 2024
Applicant:
Consensus Point, Inc.
Inventors:
Kevin Bradley Marsh, Brad Wilson, Robin HANSON
Abstract: Systems and methods for future trends forecasting based on prediction market probability estimates. Alternative simulated starting values for prediction markets are used in order to determine the preferred starting values for prediction markets to use in volumetric forecasting. A user interface that facilitates using prediction market probability estimates to determine future trends forecasts is described herein.
Type:
Application
Filed:
October 11, 2021
Publication date:
January 27, 2022
Applicant:
Consensus Point, Inc.
Inventors:
Kevin Bradley Marsh, Brad Wilson, Robin HANSON
Abstract: Systems and methods for future trends forecasting based on prediction market probability estimates. Alternative simulated starting values for prediction markets are used in order to determine the preferred starting values for prediction markets to use in volumetric forecasting. A user interface that facilitates using prediction market probability estimates to determine future trends forecasts is described herein.
Type:
Application
Filed:
September 6, 2019
Publication date:
January 2, 2020
Applicant:
Consensus Point, Inc.
Inventors:
Kevin Bradley Marsh, Brad Wilson, Robin HANSON
Abstract: Systems and methods for operating a prediction market, including methods for finding disagreement with the consensus among participants and methods for managing liquidity. Also, an interactive user interface to facilitate investing, with one user action, in a prediction market.
Type:
Application
Filed:
November 15, 2016
Publication date:
March 2, 2017
Applicant:
Consensus Point, Inc.
Inventors:
Robin HANSON, Brad Wilson, Adam J. PAROD, David R. SAVAGE
Abstract: Systems and methods having a graphic user interface for market research surveys are provided that allow users to participate in a combined prediction market and market research environment virtually without being presented directly with a stock market environment. The systems and methods of the present invention use prediction markets to automatically transform the user-provided inputs and/or selections from market research surveys, and automatically generate data that represents the likelihood of success of a product and/or service in the marketplace or commercial markets.
Type:
Application
Filed:
July 25, 2016
Publication date:
November 17, 2016
Applicant:
Consensus Point, Inc.
Inventors:
Linda REBROVICK, Brian HOGUE, Brad WILSON, Jason VOWELL
Abstract: Systems and methods for volumetric forecasting based on prediction market probability estimates. Alternative simulated starting values for prediction markets are used in order to determine the preferred starting values for prediction markets to use in volumetric forecasting. A user interface that facilitates using prediction market probability estimates to determine volumetric forecasts is described herein.
Abstract: Systems and methods for operating a prediction market, including methods for finding disagreement with the consensus among participants and methods for managing liquidity. Also, an interactive user interface to facilitate investing, with one user action, in a prediction market.
Type:
Grant
Filed:
October 21, 2011
Date of Patent:
December 17, 2013
Assignee:
Consensus Point, Inc.
Inventors:
Robin Hanson, Brad Wilson, Adam Parod, David Savage