Abstract: The present invention relates to a method and system of medication monitoring which includes analyzing data on the clinical consequences of variable patient compliance with prescribed drug regimens, communicating to caregivers and/or patients the compliance-dependent probabilities of two clinically important transitions in health status: substantive improvement in the patient's health status and substantive deterioration in the patient's health status, defining acceptable levels of the respective probabilities of deterioration and of improvement, and intervening when appropriate to improve the patient's compliance, in order to achieve mutually-agreed upon maintenance, improvement, or avoidance of deterioration in health status.