Abstract: Knowledge-based interpretable predictive modeling is provided. Expert knowledge is used to seed training of a model by a machine. The expert knowledge may be incorporated as diagram information, which relates known causal relationships between predictive variables. A predictive model is trained. In one embodiment, the model operates even with a missing value for one or more variables by using the relationship between variables. For application, the model outputs a prediction, such as the likelihood of survival for two years of a lung cancer patient. A graphical representation of the model is also output. The graphical representation shows the variables and relationships between variables used to determine the prediction. The graphical representation is interpretable by a physician or other to assist in understanding.

Abstract: Modeling of prognosis of survivability, side-effect, or both is provided. For example, RILI is predicted using bullae information. The amount, volume or ratio of Bullae, even alone, may indicate the likelihood of complication, such as the likelihood of significant (e.g., stage 3) pneumonitis. As another example, RILI is predicted using uptake values of an imaging agent. Standardized uptake from a functional image (e.g., FDG uptake from a positron emission image), alone or in combination with other features, may indicate the likelihood of side-effect. In another example, survivability, such as two-year survivability, is predicted using blood biomarkers. The characteristics of a patient's blood may be measured and, alone or in combination with other features, may indicate the likelihood of survival. The modeling may be for survivability, side-effect, or both and may use one or more of the blood biomarker, uptake value, and bullae features.

Abstract: A system for modeling complete response prediction is provided. The system includes an input that is operable to receive treatment information representing treatment data that may be used to predict a complete response of a tumor. The complete response may include a disappearance of all or substantially all of a disease. A processor may be operable to use a model to predict complete response of the tumor as a function of the treatment data. The model represents a probability of complete response to treatment given the treatment data. A display is operable to output an image as a function of the complete response prediction.