Abstract: A method performed on a processor to determine a probability of success of a cyber-attack on a target network such that the defenses of the target network may be evaluated is provided. The method includes (1) calculating a probability that the cyber-attack will successfully ingress to the target network; (2) calculating a probability that the cyber-attack will successfully move laterally in the target network by performing an action; (3) calculating a probability that the cyber-attack will successfully perform an action on objective. The calculated probabilities are combined to determine a probability that the cyber-attack will be successful such that the defenses of the target network may be evaluated.

Abstract: A method performed on a processor to determine a probability of success of a cyber-attack on a target network such that the defenses of the target network may be evaluated is provided. The method includes (1) calculating a probability that the cyber-attack will successfully ingress to the target network; (2) calculating a probability that the cyber-attack will successfully move laterally in the target network by performing an action; (3) calculating a probability that the cyber-attack will successfully perform an action on objective. The calculated probabilities are combined to determine a probability that the cyber-attack will be successful such that the defenses of the target network may be evaluated.