Abstract: A general-purpose approach to solving the core problems of detecting and predicting the actions of invisible actors, and the consequential challenges of intervention and prevention. The operational forecasting system is applied to data gathered from complex systems. The operational forecasting system uses novel early-warning signals that are based on anomalous behaviors of actors/agents that are observed, as they respond to those unobserved actors that are the source of systemic change. The operational forecasting system targets predicting when an event will occur, before it does, based on the anomalous behaviors of observed actors responding to those invisible actors that are creating the perturbation (i.e. the murmuration).

Abstract: A method for making debromohymenialdisine (DBH) 2 and analogs thereof is described. One embodiment of the present method first comprises forming hymenin 4, and then converting hymenin into DBH 2 as described herein. One such embodiment first comprises providing a compound having Formula 3 where R is independently selected from the group consisting of hydrogen and lower aliphatic, and X is independently selected from the group consisting of hydrogen and halogen. A compound having Formula 3, such as Compound 10 with R and X as hydrogen, is then converted to DBH 2 or an analog thereof. An alternative embodiment of the method comprises forming Compound 30 or Compound 32, which are then directly converted to DBH 2. Alternatively, Compound 30 can be converted to Compound 10, which is then subsequently converted to DBH 2 by reaction with a halogen in the presence of an acid.