Abstract: A computer-based method includes receiving, from a computer-based user interface, user-specified information about one or more events influential on the user's blood glucose level, generating, with a computer-based processor, a plurality of estimated trajectories of the user's blood glucose level as influenced by the one or more events, receiving a set of data that represents actual blood glucose measurements for the user, and identifying, with the computer-based processor, which of the estimated trajectories represents a best fit to the set of data that represents the actual blood glucose measurements for the user. At least some of the actual blood glucose measurements occurred later in time than a start time of the one or more events influential on the user's blood glucose level. A computer-based system is provided for implementing the method.