Abstract: An NSET method and system for modeling the behavior of a visitor to an e-commerce location are disclosed. The method of one embodiment of this invention comprises the steps of: obtaining one or more visitor characteristic values; developing a model of the visitor's behavior according to a nonlinear state estimation technique (NSET); and estimating a set of visitor behavior characteristic to model the visitor's behavior using the developed model. The method further comprises predicting the visitor's future behavior at the e-commerce location based on the set of behavior characteristic values and known statistical behavior characteristic values. The method of this invention can further comprise measuring a set of actual behavior values for a visitor based on the visitor's actual behavior at an e-commerce location, and comparing the set of estimated behavior characteristic values and the set of actual behavior values with at least one similarity operator.

Abstract: An improved empirical model-based surveillance or control system for monitoring or controlling a process or machine provides adaptation of the empirical model in response to new operational states that are deemed normal or non-exceptional for the process or machine. An adaptation decision module differentiates process or sensor upset requiring alerts from new operational states not yet modeled. A retraining module updates the empirical model to incorporate the new states, and a pruning technique optionally maintains the empirical model by removing older states in favor of the added new states recognized by the model.

Abstract: A system and method for monitoring a condition of a monitored system. Estimates of monitored parameters from a model of the system provide residual values that can be analyzed using a sequential probability ratio test (“SPRT”). The invention employs empirically derived distributions in the SPRT to provide more accurate and sensitive alerts of impending faults, breakdowns and process deviations. The distributions can be generated from piecewise continuous approximation or spline functions based on the actual distribution of residual data to provide improved computational performance. The distributions can be provided before monitoring, or can be updated and determined during monitoring in an adaptive fashion.

Abstract: A system, method and program product for monitoring a complex signal for ultrasensitive detection of state changes, or for signature recognition and classification is provided. A complex signal is decomposed periodically for empirical modeling. Wavelet analysis, frequency band filtering or other methods may be used to decompose the complex signal into components. A library of signature data may be referenced for selection of a recognized signature in the decomposed complex signal. The recognized signature may indicate data being carried in the complex signal. Estimated signal data may be generated for determination of an operational state of a monitored process or machine using a statistical hypothesis test with reference to the decomposed input signal.

Abstract: A system for detecting subtle differences in a signal in a set of linearly and/or non-linearly related signals that characterize a sensor-instrumented machine, process or living system. The system employs an improved similarity operator for signal differentiation. Signals or data representative of several linearly and/or non-linearly related parameters that describe a machine, process or living system are input to the inventive system, which compares the input to acceptable modeled states. If one or more of the input signals or data are different than expected, given the relationships between the parameters, the inventive system will indicate that difference. The system can provide expected parameter values, as well as the differences between expected and input signals; or the system can provide raw measures of similarity between the collection of input signals and the collection of acceptable modeled states. The system can be embodied in software or in a micro-controller.

Abstract: An improved system and method for producing replacement sensor signals for failed sensors, and inferred sensor signals for non-instrumented physical parameters, in processes and equipment having one or more sensors in place for monitoring physical parameters. A data history from a fully-instrumented prototype provides a representative data set of anticipated operating parameters for forming an empirical model in a computer module for generating “virtual” signals for a process or machine in real-time. Replacement or inferential sensor signals can be advantageously used in downstream control processing or analysis. A memory for storing the representative training set, or a transformation thereof, is coupled to a processor. The processor receives from an input data signals embodying real values from sensors actually on the process or machine, and may receive these in real-time.

Abstract: An improved empirical model-based surveillance or control system for monitoring or controlling a process or machine provides identification of transitions between operational states. Empirical model-based estimates generated in response to receiving actual operational parameters are compared using a global similarity operator to the actual parameters to indicate whether the process or machine is operating in a stable state, or is in transition from one state to another.

Abstract: In a machine for monitoring an instrumented process or for analyzing one or more signals, an empirical modeling module for modeling non-linearly and linearly correlated signal inputs using a non-linear angular similarity function with variable sensitivity across the range of a signal input. A different angle-based similarity function can be chosen for different inputs for improved sensitivity particular to the behavior of that input. Sections of interest within a range of a signal input can be lensed for particular sensitivity.

Abstract: A system and method for use in monitoring equipment condition employs an empirical model, a rules engine, incident generation and resolution logic, a display interface, and a messaging capability for interacting with other systems. The empirical model uses similarity-based modeling to generate equipment instantiation-specific models with high fidelity. Residuals are generated by comparison of model estimates with actual current parameters, and rules are used to identify diagnostic incidents from patterns in the residuals, actual values, estimates, and alerts on residuals.

Abstract: In a machine for monitoring an instrumented process or for analyzing one or more signals, an empirical modeling module for modeling non-linearly and linearly correlated signal inputs using a non-linear angular similarity function with variable sensitivity across the range of a signal input. A different angle-based similarity function can be chosen for different inputs for improved sensitivity particular to the behavior of that input. Sections of interest within a range of a signal input can be lensed for particular sensitivity.

Abstract: A system for empirically diagnosing a condition of a monitored system. Estimates of monitored parameters from a model of the system provide residual values that can be analyzed for failure mode signature recognition. Residual values can also be tested for alert (non-zero) conditions, and patterns of alerts thus generated are analyzed for failure mode signature patterns. The system employs a similarity operator for signature recognition and also for parameter estimation. Failure modes are empirically determined, and precursor data is automatically analyzed to determine differentiable signatures for failure modes.

Abstract: Inferred sensor signals are generated for uninstrumented physical parameters not among parameters measured in processes and equipment having one or more sensors in place for monitoring physical parameters. Inferential sensor signals can be advantageously used in downstream control processing or analysis. The inferred sensor signals generated accordingly may be returned to a control system or display system local to the process or machine, or located at the remote location or yet a different remote location. The system can provide expected parameter values, as well as the differences between expected and input signals; or the system can provide raw measures of similarity between the collection of input signals and the collection of acceptable modeled states. A memory for storing the representative training set, or a transformation thereof, is coupled to a processor.