Abstract: An example shot tracking system may perform receiving, by a shot analysis module, a shot recoil signal from a shot tracking device, obtaining, by the shot analysis module, a density of pellets at a clay target position and a pellet velocity, calculating, by the shot analysis module, a probability of the pellets striking the clay target based on the density of the pellets, computing, by the shot analysis module, a probability of a breakage of the clay target based on the pellet velocity and the probability of the pellets striking the clay target, and providing the probability of breakage to a display device to be rendered to a user.