Abstract: A method for identifying a kidney transplant recipient at an increased risk of developing interstitial fibrosis or tubular atrophy which comprises obtaining a post-transplant urine sample from the kidney transplant recipient; measuring the level of clusterin in the urine sample; comparing the level of clusterin in the patient sample to the level of clusterin in a control sample from the urine of a non-fibrotic kidney transplant recipient; diagnosing a kidney transplant recipient with a clusterin level that is significantly higher than the clusterin level in the control as being at an increased risk of developing interstitial fibrosis or tubular atrophy.