Abstract: Systems, apparatuses, and methods include an upstream exhaust analysis circuit structured to determine a characteristic of an exhaust gas stream entering a nitrous oxide (NOx) storage catalyst; a prediction circuit structured to predict a downstream NOx concentration of an exhaust gas stream exiting the NOx storage catalyst based on a model of a NOx storage capacity or a dynamic response of the NOx storage catalyst; a downstream exhaust analysis circuit structured to determine a downstream NOx concentration of the exhaust gas stream exiting the NOx storage catalyst; and a comparison circuit structured to compare the predicted downstream NOx concentration to the determined downstream NOx concentration, and determine a health of the NOx storage catalyst based on the comparison.