Abstract: Methods and systems that estimate a degree of abnormality of a complex system based on historical time-series data representative of the complex system's past behavior and using the historical degree of abnormality to determine whether or not a degree of abnormality determined from current time-series data representative of the same complex system's current behavior is worthy of attention. The time-series data may be metric data that represents behavior of a complex system as a result of successive measurements of the complex system made over time or in a time interval. A degree of abnormality represents the amount by which the time-series data violates a threshold. The larger the degree of abnormality of the current time-series data is from the historical degree of abnormality, the larger the violation of the thresholds and the greater the probability the violation in the current time-series data is worthy of attention.