Abstract: A method is provided to accurately predict the probability of successfully recovering frames of (coded) information received over a wireless link, without having to decode the frame. This method, which consists of three steps, requires only limited information about the received signals and the forward error correction code and retransmission scheme being used. First, the signal to noise ratio (SNR) of each of the received signals is measured, where the average SNR is determined for multiple segments that together constitute the frame. Next, an algorithm is employed that takes these SNR values as inputs and determines the so-called effective SNR. The algorithm translates the measured SNR values using an appropriate convex metric, and subsequently combines the resulting values, thereby factoring in the effects of fading, multi-path, and other signal degradations.