Abstract: A method for controlling operation of an intelligent vehicle navigation (IVN) system includes a system controller receiving path plan data for a desired route of a vehicle and, using this path plan data, identifying a low/no-connectivity (LNC) area with limited/no wireless service within the desired route. The IVN system retrieves historical trip data containing time durations to cross the LNC area for a statistically significant number of prior trips across the LNC area; the IVN system constructs a probability distribution of these trip durations. The IVN system tracks a time lapse during which no wireless signal is received from the vehicle after output of the vehicle's last wireless signal before entering the LNC area. A driving incident is predicted responsive to the no-signal time lapse exceeding a predefined threshold within the probability distribution. The system controller responds to the predicted driving incident by transmitting an alert to a third-party entity.