Abstract: A performance estimation method includes determining, for a device response that is dependent on first factors and second factors, a plurality of response distributions including at least one of: a measured response distribution of a production set corresponding to a setting of the first factors, the production set including a plurality of manufactured units; a response distribution simulated in accordance with a simulation model and with a combined factor setting of the first factors and the second factors; and a response distribution estimated in accordance with the combined factor setting and in accordance with a response prediction model relating the device response to the first factors and to the second factors. The method also includes estimating, in accordance with the plurality of response distributions, a performance metric prediction model relating a performance metric to the first factors.