Abstract: A computer simulates flight routes for simulated airborne transmitters across a spatial region divided into unit area tiles and over time based on actual aircraft flight plan data. The computer determines transmitter counts per tile per time interval based on the flight routes and assigns transmit parameters, including transmit message rates, to the transmitters. The computer determines transmit message rates per tile based on the transmitter counts and the transmit parameters. The computer generates, for a simulated receiver, an antenna pattern covering at least some of the tiles, and converts the transmit message rates of the covered tiles to a total effective receive message rate of interfering messages at the receiver. The computer determines a probability of successful detection of a desired message among the interfering messages at the receiver based on the effective receive message rate.