Abstract: A computer implemented method of making an investment value decision through modeling an investment's expected cash flows, each expected cash flow represented on the display device of a computer as a graphical three-dimensional joint-probability volume encapsulating uncertainties of both time and magnitude, making it unnecessary to consider investment risk before choosing discount rates, allowing a user to discount all cash flows using only the “risk-free” rate to produce a net present value probability distribution rather than single-number estimate, and displaying the resulting net present value probability distribution as a graphical two-dimensional net present value probability area on the display device of a computer, wherein one dimension represents magnitude and the other dimension represents probability.

Abstract: A computer implemented method of making a decision through modeling comprising the steps of: providing a first decision having at least one future cash flow on a computer; providing at least one image to a user from a library of images; selecting an image for each future cash flow to represent uncertainty of magnitude to provide at least one magnitude distribution; selecting an image of distribution for each future cash flow to represent uncertainty at least one particular time providing at least one timing distribution; combining the magnitude distribution and the timing distribution into a joint-probability distribution function; plotting the joint-probability function to provide a probability texture; accepting modifications; accepting information about a relationship between possible future events; converting at least two joint-probability functions to generate a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution; accepting modifications to joint-probability functions and re-generating a two-dimen

Abstract: A computer implemented method of valuing and modeling an investment comprising the steps of: providing at least one investment for consideration comprised of at least one future cash flow; creating at least one probability distribution for each future cash flow, by a user, each probability distribution to represent uncertainty of magnitude at at least one particular time to provide at least one magnitude distribution; creating at least one probability distribution for each future cash flow, by a user, each probability distribution to represent uncertainty of timing at at least one particular magnitude to provide at least one timing distribution; combining the magnitude distributions and at least one timing distribution into at least one joint-probability distribution function; and converting at least one joint-probability distribution function to generate a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution.