Abstract: For controlling energy transfer (Q) of a thermal energy exchanger of an HVAC system, a control system determines flow-dependent model parameters (M) for modelling performance of the thermal energy exchanger, using a plurality of measurement data sets, each measurement data set including for a respective measurement time a value of a measured flow of fluid (?act), a value of a measured supply temperature (Tsup) of the fluid, and a value of the measured return temperature (Tret) of the fluid. The control system calculates an estimated energy transfer (Qest) of the thermal energy exchanger, using the flow-dependent model parameters (M), and controls (S4) the energy transfer (Q) of the thermal energy exchanger by regulating (S5) the flow of fluid (?) through the thermal energy exchanger, using the estimated energy transfer (Qest).