Abstract: A method of adaptive persistence forecasting includes receiving historical load values for a site with at least one component that consumes energy; receiving historical temperature values corresponding to dates of the historical load values; evaluating the historical load values and the historical temperature values to determine a correlation coefficient; determining that there exists at least a threshold correlation between a load activity and temperature for the historical load values and the historical temperature values based on the correlation coefficient; in response to determining that there exists at least the threshold correlation, normalizing the historical load values based on a set temperature; and applying an adaptive seasonal persistence model to the normalized historical load values to output a forecast for use in controlling energy resources at the site.

Abstract: Control of an electric water heater based on a two-mass model may be provided. First, a reserve capacity of an Electric Water Heater (EWH) may be determined. Next, a safe deferred time for the EWH based on the determined reserve capacity may be determined. Then a grid service event initiation may be received. In response to receiving the grid service event initiation, the EWH may be caused to not heat water for the determined safe deferred time.

Abstract: Power grid management systems and methods include determining a power reference, and sending a first message from a first controller to each of a plurality of second controllers based on the power reference. Each of the plurality of second controllers is configured to control a plurality of associated distributed energy resources (DERs). Energy usage of the associated DERs is modified by each of the plurality of second controllers based on the first message. Each of the second controllers sends feedback data to the first controller message based on the modified energy usage of the associated DERs. The feedback data is aggregated by the first controller, and the aggregated feedback data is compared to the power reference. The first controller sends a second message to each of the plurality of second controllers based on the comparison.