Abstract: Computer-implemented systems, methods and products for modeling sensitivities to potential disruptions by observing performances of entities in a first sub-population and a second sub-population using a machine learning model comprising a set of predictors and a binary indicator variable associated with a first entity subjected to a first event associated with the first sub-population, the machine learning model trained to predict an expected performance for the first entity based on at least one of a known attribute associated with the first entity in relation to the first event and a value of the binary indicator variable associated with the first event.

Abstract: A sensitivity index model for predicting the sensitivity of an entity to a potential future disruption can be trained using a process that includes dividing a population of entities for which data attributes are available into matched pairs in a first sub-population and a second sup-population based on matching propensity scores for the entities using supervised machine learning, modeling outcomes for the two sub-populations, using the resultant models to calculate expected performances of the entities under differing conditions, and generating the sensitivity index model using supervised learning techniques based on quantification of differences between the calculated expected performances for the entities.

Abstract: A sensitivity index model for predicting the sensitivity of an entity to a potential future disruption can be trained using a process that includes dividing a population of entities for which data attributes are available into matched pairs in a first sub-population and a second sup-population based on matching propensity scores for the entities using supervised machine learning, modeling outcomes for the two sub-populations, using the resultant models to calculate expected performances of the entities under differing conditions, and generating the sensitivity index model using supervised learning techniques based on quantification of differences between the calculated expected performances for the entities.

Abstract: In one aspect, a computer implemented method for segmenting a population based on sensitivities to potential disruptions is provided. The method includes receiving one or more attributes associated with a first entity. The method further includes calculating a sensitivity index for the first entity based on the one or more attributes. The method further includes calculating a second risk score for the first entity based on the sensitivity index and the first risk score of the entity. The method further includes outputting the second risk score to a user interface.