Abstract: Disclosed are methods for scheduling when to run a process to take advantage of time-varying input prices by predicting the “rank” of the current actual input price among future input prices. The rank is that portion of a future time period during which the input price will be less than the current actual input price. An “operational cutoff” is set based on the portion of time during which a process should run in order to produce a target output amount. Periodically, the actual input price is determined, and its rank is predicted. The predicted rank is then compared with the operational cutoff. If the predicted rank is below the cutoff, then it makes economic sense to run the process. Otherwise, it would be cheaper not to run the process at present but to wait a while in expectation that the input price will drop.

Abstract: Disclosed are methods for scheduling when to run a process to take advantage of time-varying input prices by predicting the “rank” of the current actual input price among future input prices. The rank is that portion of a future time period during which the input price will be less than the current actual input price. An “operational cutoff” is set based on the portion of time during which a process should run in order to produce a target output amount. Periodically, the actual input price is determined, and its rank is predicted. The predicted rank is then compared with the operational cutoff. If the predicted rank is below the cutoff, then it makes economic sense to run the process. Otherwise, it would be cheaper not to run the process at present but to wait a while in expectation that the input price will drop.