Abstract: A method for training a fault probability model using warranty claim data includes obtaining, by a processing circuit, a first data set for failed building devices based on warranty claim data associated with the building devices; receiving, by the processing circuit, design change data associated with the building devices and determining a design change date based on the design change data; comparing, by the processing circuit, a manufacturing date for each of the failed building devices with the design change date; removing, by the processing circuit, any building devices from the first data set in response to the manufacturing date preceding the design change date to create an updated first data set; generating, by the processing circuit, a training data set comprising the updated first data set; and training, by the processing circuit, a fault probability model using the training data set to produce a trained model.