Abstract: The present invention relates to diagnostic and prognostic methods to determine the likelihood of a subject who has a inflammatory disease or liver disease of developing cancer. In particular, the present invention relates to methods for identifying subjects with increased susceptibility to developing cancer, such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) where the subject has an inflammatory disease, such as, but not limited to cirrhosis, by identifying a variance or polymorphism in the human EGF gene. In particular, the methods of the present invention relate to identifying subjects with increased susceptibility to developing cancer such as HCC, where the subject has an inflammatory disease, such as but not limited to cirrhosis, and the subject is identified to have a single nucleotide polymorphism 61A>G in the 5?UTR of the EGF gene.