Abstract: The reliability and remaining time before failure for electric motor systems and the like is determined with an ascertained statistical confidence based on continually monitored system parameters and a database comprised of historical failure mode/cause and repair data concerning the same motor and/or similar motor systems. A computational process is followed that relies upon hierarchical failure-tree structures, Weibull probability distributions and directed causal networks and which updates the probabilities and models used to forecast the remaining time before system failure based on the monitored parameters. Motor system operational parameter data is continually monitored at the site of the motor system and up-loaded via wireless or other communications network to a remote computer system where a database is maintained and reliability analysis is performed.

Abstract: The reliability and remaining time before failure for electric motor systems and the like is determined with an ascertained statistical confidence based on continually monitored system parameters and a database comprised of historical failure mode/cause and repair data concerning the same motor and/or similar motor systems. A computational process is followed that relies upon hierarchical failure-tree structures, Weibull probabillity distributions and directed causal networks and which updates the probabilities and models used to forecast the remaining time before system failure based on the monitored parameters. Motor system operational parameter data is continually monitored at the site of the motor system and up-loaded via wireless or other communications network to a remote computer system where a database is maintained and reliability analysis is performed.