Abstract: Systems and methods consistent with the invention for monitoring a market for a predetermined behavior by a market participant (a) receive textual information from a source, (b) extract targeted information from the received information, storing the extracted information in an organized form in a database, (c) compute summary and profile information describing the activity on an issue in the market, storing the summary and profile information in the database, (d) solve a selected equation using targeted information stored in the database relating to the market participant to produce a solution representing a probability that the predetermined behavior has occurred, and (e) adjusting the probability that the behavior has occurred based on the application of one or more expert rules to the targeted information.