Abstract: A mathematical prognostic in which changes in a number of physiologically significant factors are measured and interpolated to determine a “damage fluction” incident to bacterial infection or other serious inflammation, followed by either or both of in vitro or in vivo investigations of a particular active agent (drug) and adjustment of the model so as better to evaluate the particular active agent. By measuring a large number of physiologically significant factors including, but not limited to, Interleukin 6 (IL-6), Interleukin 10 (IL-10), Nitric Oxide (NO), and others, it is possible to predict life versus death by the damage function, dD/dt. To evaluate one or more drug candidates against inflammation, the mathematical model is applied first, followed by in vivo and/or in vitro investigations, and the in vivo and/or in vitro investigations are in turn used to adjust or to enhance, if applicable, the mathematical model as it is applied to the particular drug candidate.