Abstract: A controller and method for controlling objects states in a complex system. A change in state of at least one first object in the system is detected. A first modifying action to the at least one first object in response to the detected change in state is determined, and output to be applied to the at least one first object. A change in state of at least one second object from the plurality of system objects different from the at least one first object is detected, where the change in state of the at least one second object is a result of the first modifying action being applied to the at least one first object. A second modifying action is determined and output to be applied to the system to improve system performance according to the performance metric after the first modifying action is applied.

Abstract: A contingency forecasting system for computer generating a contingency forecast simulation of a monitored system to receive a plurality of monitored event records each describing a state of the monitored system during a monitored event of the monitored system having a monitored attribute for each of a plurality of variables. An extraction module extracts one or more of the plurality of monitored event records as exceptions if the monitored values satisfy respective regularity condition. A modification module is configured to generate one or more modified event records. A selection module is configured to select a subset of contingency event records from a set of event records having the extracted exceptional event records and the generated modified event records. A forecast simulation module is configured to apply one or more forecasting techniques to the selected subset of contingency event records to generate contingency forecast simulation parameters.