Abstract: A facility implementing systems and/or methods for achieving energy consumption/production and cost goals is described. The facility identifies various components of an energy system and assesses the environment in which those components operate. Based on the identified components and assessments, the facility generates a model to simulate different series/schedules of adjustments to the system and how those adjustments will effect energy consumption or production. Using the model, and based on identified patterns, preferences, and forecasted weather conditions, the facility can identify an optimal series or schedule of adjustments to achieve the user's goals and provide the schedule to the system for implementation. The model may be constructed using a time-series of energy consumption and thermostat states to estimate parameters and algorithms of the system.