Abstract: A degradation modeling and lifetime prediction method considering effective shocks includes steps of: first collecting degradation test data, then establishing a performance degradation model, and determining an environment or load changing rate threshold of a product subjected to effective shock based on the test data; estimating parameters in the model, and determining effective shock occurrence times based on the future environmental or load profile, and finally preforming lifetime and reliability prediction. Specific steps are as follows: step 1: collecting degradation test data; step 2: establishing a degradation model; step 3: determining an environment or load changing rate threshold; step 4: estimating the parameters; step 5: predicting the times that effective shocks occur; and step 6: performing reliability prediction.