Abstract: Various embodiments include systems and methods for evaluating potential connections between users of a social networking system. Instrumental variable (IV) models are utilized to estimate a change of user engagement with the social networking system that can be caused by the establishment of a potential connection between users. The estimates can serve as a basis for prioritizing promotional information relating to potential connections.

Abstract: An advertiser determines an attribution assigned to an online publisher for providing advertisement impressions to a user that purchased the product associated with the advertisement impressions. An event chain that resulted in a conversion by a user is received and a probability that the event chain would result in a conversion is determined. A probability that a second event chain that includes the events of the received event chain except for a target event, would result in a conversion is determined. A score for the target event is determined based on the probability that the received event chain would result in a conversion and the probability that the second event chain would result in a conversion.