Abstract: Input characterizing one or more economic indicators and a portfolio of accounts can be used to estimate a portfolio level effect of the economic indicators on the portfolio of accounts is estimated. Based on this estimation, an account level effect of the economic indicators is simulated for each of the accounts. The overall affect of the simulated account level effects approximates the portfolio level effect. Simulated account level effects can thereafter be aggregated in order to characterize future risk for the portfolio of accounts. Related apparatus, systems, techniques and articles are also described.

Abstract: A cross-sectional model is provided that determines the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the odds to score relationship of a scoring model. The cross-sectional model takes economic data from various economic regions, as opposed to time periods, as input, and produces, as output, a prediction of the curve-of-best fit that relates a score to a probability (i.e., the probability of the outcome in question such as paying back a loan or filing an insurance claim, etc.). Related systems, methods and articles are also described.

Abstract: A computerized method includes scoring a plurality of loans, and banding the plurality of loans into risk pools on the basis of the scores associated with the plurality of loans. The computerized method also includes modeling a change in y-intercept and slope of the natural log of the odds to the loan scores relationship, using that predicted log odds to calculate the probability of default for the plurality of risk pools over time as a function of a set of macro-economic data. A machine readable medium provides instructions that, when executed by a machine, cause the machine to perform the above on a system for determining an amount of capital to hold in reserve for a plurality of loan risk pools and to set strategies for managing risk for a plurality of risk pools.

Abstract: Input characterizing one or more economic indicators and a portfolio of accounts can be used to estimate a portfolio level effect of the economic indicators on the portfolio of accounts is estimated. Based on this estimation, an account level effect of the economic indicators is simulated for each of the accounts. The overall affect of the simulated account level effects approximates the portfolio level effect. Simulated account level effects can thereafter be aggregated in order to characterize future risk for the portfolio of accounts. Related apparatus, systems, techniques and articles are also described.