Abstract: A computer-implemented method including tracking data describing a new population of users of a software application including different graphical user interfaces (GUIs). The method also includes generating a distribution by mapping the data to lookalike cohorts. The method also includes extracting, using a random sampling algorithm, samples from the distribution. The method also includes generating, from the samples, a normal distribution of predicted long term values of the new population of users. The method also includes selecting an expected long term value from the normal distribution. The method also includes generating, from the normal distribution, an estimated distribution, around the expected long term value, of estimated long-term values for the new population. The method also includes selecting, using the expected long term value and the estimated distribution, a selected GUI from among the different GUIs. The method also includes modifying the software application by presenting the selected GUI.