Abstract: Techniques for determining an estimated time of arrival at a pickup location are discussed herein. For example, techniques may include receiving first location data from a user computing device approaching a pickup location, receiving data indicating when the device entered a virtual boundary associated with the pickup location, determining a location of the device when it was a particular time period away from entering the virtual boundary, associating the location with a discretized location of a map, applying a blurring function to generate a probability field indicating probability of entering the virtual boundary within the time period, using the probability field to determine probability of arriving at the pickup location within the particular time period, and triggering an action based on the probability meeting a threshold.