Abstract: A system and method is disclosed as using archetype-based n-grams based on an event sequence of the real-time transactions, the n-grams providing a probability based on a specific sequence of behavioral events and their likelihood, and in which high probability n-grams represent typical behaviors of customers in a same peer group, and low probability n-grams represent rare event sequences and increased risk.

Abstract: A method, system and computer program product for reduced fraud customer impact through purchase propensity is disclosed. A probability estimate of spending by a consumer in a merchant transaction category is computed based on historical transaction data and consumer profile data, and a propensity score for the merchant transaction is generated. The propensity score represents a propensity for the consumer to conduct the merchant transaction. The propensity score is combined in a fraud model operating in a real-time transaction stream. The fraud score can be adjusted in accordance with the propensity score.